Hamrun Spartans 1-3 Marsaxlokk FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 14 Dec 2025

📅14/12/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.71
Over 2.5
34%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
24%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+2.8pp
66%
Under 2.5
55%
+11.2pp
34%
Over 2.5
45%
-11.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.3pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamrun Spartans EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsaxlokk FC EU Bookmakers 24%
-8% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.29/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.41
-11% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +82% / -1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamrun Spartans
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Marsaxlokk FC
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2025 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC 0-2 HT 0-0 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MLTP
30.04.2025 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MALTP
05.01.2025 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC 1-6 HT 1-2 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MALTP
02.11.2024 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 2-3 HT 0-1 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC MLTP
16.03.2024 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 1-2 HT 0-0 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC MLTP
25.11.2023 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamrun Spartans
1-3
AWAY Marsaxlokk FC
61% Ball Possession 39%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsaxlokk FC beat Hamrun Spartans 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Hamrun Spartans at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hamrun Spartans had 61% of the ball to Marsaxlokk FC's 39%, shots finished 6-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hamrun Spartans had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Hamrun Spartans and 1.00 for Marsaxlokk FC.

What was the final score of Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk FC?

Hamrun Spartans 1-3 Marsaxlokk FC in the Malta - Premier League on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamrun Spartans win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Hamrun Spartans 48%, draw 28%, Marsaxlokk FC 24%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hamrun Spartans) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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