Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Kocaelispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 14 Dec 2025

📅14/12/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.29
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
35%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.6
Over 2.5
45%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.49
2-3 Goals
36%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
4.59
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.61
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
9%
14.35
X/1 EV+ ✗
19%
7.02
X/2
9%
4.79
X/X
13%
3.92
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
19%
3.11
2/X
6%
13.5
Value flag · X/1 at 7.02 — our 19% vs market 10.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
27%
+9.8pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.7pp
36%
Away Win
44%
-8.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.5pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 48%
-9% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -58% / -58%
1.03/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/4.00
-11% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +90% / -73%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
295 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 79%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.6 Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Kocaelispor
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.01 xG 1.40
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
246 Passes 296
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
16.03.2025 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 HT 0-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
02.11.2024 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 2-1 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
13.02.2005 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 HT 0-1 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
12.09.2004 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 5-1 HT 4-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1-1
AWAY Kocaelispor
0.96 xG 1.56
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
243 Passes 481
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
13 Box Touches 26
8 Crosses 38
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 35% of the ball to Kocaelispor's 65%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 0.96 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Kocaelispor led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 2.50 for Kocaelispor.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor?

Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Kocaelispor in the Turkey - Super League on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 37%, draw 28%, Kocaelispor 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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