Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Kocaelispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.59
Over 2.5
45%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.5
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
4.86
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.08
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
13%
5.55
X/2
17%
5.5
X/X
12%
3.8
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
14%
4.02
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.55
Value flag · 2/X at 13.55 — our 12% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
-0.1pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.0pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.4pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 38%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +0%
1.17/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.19
+16% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
301 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
15.5 Crosses 18.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Kocaelispor
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.59 xG 1.52
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
206 Passes 407
68% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 33
11 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.11.2024 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 2-1 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
13.02.2005 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 HT 0-1 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
12.09.2004 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 5-1 HT 4-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1-1
AWAY Kocaelispor
1.43 xG 1.28
59% Ball Possession 41%
7 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
286 Passes 185
73% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Box Touches 8
25 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 59% of the ball to Kocaelispor's 41%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 1.43 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Kocaelispor led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 3.00 for Kocaelispor.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor?

Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Kocaelispor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kocaelispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 36%, draw 29%, Kocaelispor 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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