Almeria 2-3 Leganes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 15 Jan 2025

📅15/01/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
35%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.49
6+ Goals
9%
13.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 31% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
2.33
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
19%
4.26
X/2
14%
8.72
X/X
13%
4.92
2/1
6%
23.85
2/2
13%
6.96
2/X
7%
15.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
53%
-15.5pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.1pp
35%
Away Win
23%
+12.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+6.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-6.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.8pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Leganes EU Bookmakers 26%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -41% / -41%
1.97/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.00
+33% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +21%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
432 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 74%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
12.0 Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Leganes
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.71 xG 1.73
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
353 Passes 232
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.05.2022 Leganes Leganes 2-2 HT 2-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
29.10.2021 Almeria Almeria 1-0 HT 1-0 Leganes Leganes İS2
27.03.2021 Almeria Almeria 1-1 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS2
17.02.2021 Leganes Leganes 2-1 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
23.01.2016 Leganes Leganes 2-1 HT 2-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
23.08.2015 Almeria Almeria 3-2 HT 3-0 Leganes Leganes İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
2-3
AWAY Leganes
0.86 xG 2.10
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
432 Passes 384
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Almeria vs Leganes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leganes nicked a narrow win over Almeria 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Leganes made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Almeria had 52% of the ball to Leganes's 48%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.86 to 2.10 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Leganes's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Almeria and 1.50 for Leganes.

What was the final score of Almeria vs Leganes?

Almeria 2-3 Leganes in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 15/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs Leganes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Almeria 37%, draw 28%, Leganes 35%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Almeria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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