Toulouse 2-1 Stade Lavallois — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 15 Jan 2025

📅15/01/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.95
Over 2.5
44%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.41
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.28
6+ Goals
9%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 32% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.92
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.9
X/1
20%
3.95
X/2
11%
11.45
X/X
12%
5.6
2/1
8%
22.55
2/2
9%
9.59
2/X
6%
18.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-10.7pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.4pp
26%
Away Win
17%
+9.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.9pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Stade Lavallois EU Bookmakers 20%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +51% / +51%
1.35/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.68
+2% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +150%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
429 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 73%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 6.0
14.1 Crosses 11.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Stade Lavallois
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
04.04.2003 Toulouse Toulouse 2-1 HT 1-1 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois FR2
02.11.2002 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 1-1 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
2-1
AWAY Stade Lavallois
2.41 xG 0.91
53% Ball Possession 47%
23 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
444 Passes 364
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Stade Lavallois
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse edged past Stade Lavallois 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Toulouse as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Toulouse had 53% of the ball to Stade Lavallois's 47%, shots finished 23-7, expected goals 2.41 to 0.91 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Toulouse's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Toulouse had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Toulouse and 1.00 for Stade Lavallois.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Stade Lavallois?

Toulouse 2-1 Stade Lavallois in the France - Cup on 15/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Stade Lavallois?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 51%, draw 24%, Stade Lavallois 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toulouse) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toulouse) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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