RKC Waalwijk 1-2 Utrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 15 Jan 2025

RKC Waalwijk
1-2 HT 1-0
Utrecht
📅15/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - KNVB Cup – 2024/2025

RKC Waalwijk vs Utrecht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.29
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
46%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.55
No
43%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.82
6+ Goals
13%
7.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.39
1/2 EV+ ✓
11%
20.95
1/X
8%
13.8
X/1
8%
7.87
X/2
15%
4.77
X/X
11%
5.69
2/1
8%
32.0
2/2
20%
2.51
2/X
5%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.95 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
46%
Away Win
49%
-2.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.6pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RKC Waalwijk v Utrecht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht EU Bookmakers 53%
+47% / +47% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +27%
2.81/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/1.00
+149% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 80%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.7 Crosses –
1.4 Yellow Cards –

RKC Waalwijk vs Utrecht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RKC Waalwijk
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Utrecht
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.23 xG 1.89
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
284 Passes 413
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
05.10.2024 Utrecht Utrecht 3-2 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
28.04.2024 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-2 HT 1-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
16.12.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 1-1 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
31.10.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 3-2 HT 3-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOK
13.05.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 2-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
06.08.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-2 HT 2-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL

RKC Waalwijk 1-2 Utrecht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RKC Waalwijk
1-2
AWAY Utrecht
0.55 xG 2.32
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
339 Passes 411
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH RKC Waalwijk vs Utrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht squeezed past RKC Waalwijk 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Utrecht as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 45% of the ball to Utrecht's 55%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 0.55 to 2.32 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Utrecht's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 2.17 for Utrecht.

What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs Utrecht?

RKC Waalwijk 1-2 Utrecht in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 15/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs Utrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated an Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 30%, draw 24%, Utrecht 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Utrecht), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Utrecht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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