Como 1-3 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 15 Jan 2026

Como
1-3 HT 1-1
Milan
📅15/01/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.74
Over 2.5
51%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.87
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.93
6+ Goals
10%
17.85
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.93 — our 24% vs market 19.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.55
1/2
10%
29.0
1/X
9%
13.0
X/1
10%
6.38
X/2
9%
5.4
X/X
13%
4.18
2/1
9%
33.5
2/2
21%
3.5
2/X
6%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.6pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.6pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
54%
-4.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
46%
+4.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.8pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Como EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 43%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -11%
1.09/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.43
+39% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -20%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 80%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
15.1 Crosses 16.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Como
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Milan
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.21 xG 1.30
54% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
354 Passes 286
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
15.03.2025 Milan Milan 2-1 HT 0-1 Como Como İTA
14.01.2025 Como Como 1-2 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
03.05.2003 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 1-0 Como Como İTA
15.12.2002 Como Como 1-2 HT 1-2 Milan Milan İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Como
1-3
AWAY Milan
1.87 xG 1.27
68% Ball Possession 32%
18 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
617 Passes 254
94% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 11
30 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Como vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan beat Como 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Como had 68% of the ball to Milan's 32%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.87 to 1.27 — on chances, Como could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Como and 2.00 for Milan.

What was the final score of Como vs Milan?

Como 1-3 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 15/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Como vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Como 31%, draw 28%, Milan 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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