Milan 2-1 Como — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 15 Mar 2025

Milan
2-1 HT 0-1
Como
📅15/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Milan vs Como Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.76
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.1
Over 2.5
44%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
2.99
6+ Goals
9%
9.46
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.91 — our 30% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.32
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.0
X/1
16%
4.54
X/2
8%
8.85
X/X
12%
5.34
2/1
6%
21.7
2/2
14%
6.5
2/X
7%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
-9.6pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.7pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.2pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milan v Como — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Como EU Bookmakers 26%
+3% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.76/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.95
+9% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 78%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
19.7 Crosses 16.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Milan vs Como Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Como
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.30 xG 1.43
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
308 Passes 322
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 16
6 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.01.2025 Como Como 1-2 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
03.05.2003 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 1-0 Como Como İTA
15.12.2002 Como Como 1-2 HT 1-2 Milan Milan İTA

Milan 2-1 Como — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
2-1
AWAY Como
1.30 xG 0.99
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 5
263 Passes 385
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 23
3 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Milan vs Como
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan squeezed past Como 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Milan had 42% of the ball to Como's 58%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 1.30 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Milan and 0.67 for Como.

What was the final score of Milan vs Como?

Milan 2-1 Como in the Italy - Serie A on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Como?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Milan 43%, draw 29%, Como 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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