Monza 1-1 Parma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 15 Mar 2025

Monza
1-1 HT 0-0
Parma
📅15/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Monza vs Parma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
40%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.1
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.54
6+ Goals
9%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 31% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.47
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
10%
6.44
X/2
13%
5.34
X/X
14%
4.35
2/1
9%
31.5
2/2
20%
3.33
2/X
10%
12.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-2.4pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.2pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+1.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.2pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monza v Parma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Parma EU Bookmakers 43%
-24% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -20%
0.92/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/0.89
-45% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -38%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
320 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
23.0 Crosses 17.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.3

Monza vs Parma Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monza
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Parma
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.67 xG 0.95
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 5
390 Passes 280
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 21
30 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.12.2024 Parma Parma 2-1 HT 0-0 Monza Monza İTA
02.03.2022 Monza Monza 1-1 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTB
17.10.2021 Parma Parma 0-0 HT 0-0 Monza Monza İTB

Monza 1-1 Parma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
1-1
AWAY Parma
0.69 xG 0.66
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
329 Passes 442
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Monza vs Parma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monza and Parma shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Parma at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Monza had 45% of the ball to Parma's 55%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.69 to 0.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Parma led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Monza and 1.00 for Parma.

What was the final score of Monza vs Parma?

Monza 1-1 Parma in the Italy - Serie A on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Parma?

Before kick-off our model rated an Parma win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Monza 30%, draw 30%, Parma 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Parma), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Parma) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
15 Mar 2025
17:00 Udinese vs Hellas Verona Analysis →
20:00 Milan vs Como Analysis →
22:45 Torino vs Empoli Analysis →