Augsburg 1-1 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 15 Jan 2026

Augsburg
1-1 HT 1-0
Union Berlin
📅15/01/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Augsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.66
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.25
6+ Goals
8%
21.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.81
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
10%
13.45
X/1
9%
5.49
X/2
9%
5.85
X/X
12%
4.09
2/1
8%
32.0
2/2
20%
4.21
2/X
6%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.7pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Union Berlin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -16%
1.43/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.22
-3% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +32%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
287 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 74%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
21.1 Crosses 19.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Augsburg vs Union Berlin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Union Berlin
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.42 xG 1.21
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
327 Passes 384
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.05.2025 Augsburg Augsburg 1-2 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
15.01.2025 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-2 HT 0-2 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
12.04.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
25.11.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-1 HT 0-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
06.05.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
07.01.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg HAZ

Augsburg 1-1 Union Berlin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
1-1
AWAY Union Berlin
0.55 xG 1.31
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
326 Passes 360
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
11 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg and Union Berlin shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Augsburg had 48% of the ball to Union Berlin's 52%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 0.55 to 1.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Augsburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Augsburg and 0.67 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Union Berlin?

Augsburg 1-1 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 15/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 37%, draw 28%, Union Berlin 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Augsburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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