Augsburg 1-2 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
34%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
50%
-8.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
34%
Away Win
25%
+8.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.0pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -3%
1.58/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.48
-26% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
390 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 73%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
23.2 Crosses 17.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Union Berlin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.20 xG 1.28
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
261 Passes 395
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.01.2025 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-2 HT 0-2 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
12.04.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
25.11.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-1 HT 0-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
06.05.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
07.01.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg HAZ
09.11.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-2 HT 2-2 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
1-2
AWAY Union Berlin
1.70 xG 0.82
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 0
514 Passes 262
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
32 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin edged past Augsburg 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Augsburg at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Augsburg had 63% of the ball to Union Berlin's 37%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 1.70 to 0.82 — on chances, Augsburg could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Augsburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Augsburg and 0.67 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Union Berlin?

Augsburg 1-2 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 41%, draw 25%, Union Berlin 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Augsburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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