Augsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Augsburg v Union Berlin — Team-Based Signals
Augsburg vs Union Berlin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-1
Augsburg
AL1
1-0
HT 0-0
Union Berlin
AL1
1-0
Augsburg
HAZ
2-2
HT 2-2
Augsburg
AL1
Augsburg 1-2 Union Berlin — Actual Match Statistics
Union Berlin edged past Augsburg 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Augsburg at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Augsburg had 63% of the ball to Union Berlin's 37%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 1.70 to 0.82 — on chances, Augsburg could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Augsburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Augsburg and 0.67 for Union Berlin.
What was the final score of Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Augsburg 1-2 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 41%, draw 25%, Union Berlin 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.