Heidenheim 1-4 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 17 May 2025

Heidenheim
1-4 HT 0-2
Werder Bremen
📅17/05/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Heidenheim vs Werder Bremen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.51
Over 2.5
50%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.41
No
48%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
5.32
2-3 Goals
38%
1.99
4-5 Goals
24%
2.56
6+ Goals
12%
5.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.58
1/2
10%
22.9
1/X
6%
12.35
X/1
12%
6.32
X/2
11%
6.14
X/X
13%
6.0
2/1
9%
23.75
2/2
17%
3.43
2/X
8%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.3pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.7pp
38%
Away Win
38%
-0.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
36%
+13.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
64%
-13.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
67%
-14.5pp
48%
BTTS No
33%
+14.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heidenheim v Werder Bremen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 42%
-11% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.46/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.34
-28% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +11%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 80%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
21.8 Crosses 18.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Heidenheim vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.55 xG 1.82
44% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
272 Passes 387
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.01.2025 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 3-3 HT 1-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
10.02.2024 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 1-2 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
17.09.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 4-2 HT 2-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
12.03.2022 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-1 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL2
01.10.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 3-0 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
06.07.2020 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-2 HT 0-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1P

Heidenheim 1-4 Werder Bremen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
1-4
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.59 xG 2.21
51% Ball Possession 49%
21 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
426 Passes 403
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 29
20 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen ran out comfortable winners over Heidenheim 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 38%) promised a tight game; Werder Bremen found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Heidenheim had 51% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 49%, shots finished 21-13, expected goals 1.59 to 2.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heidenheim had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Heidenheim and 2.00 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Werder Bremen?

Heidenheim 1-4 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 35%, draw 28%, Werder Bremen 38%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Werder Bremen), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✓ BTTS Yes
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