RB Leipzig 2-3 Stuttgart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
3.14
Over 2.5
54%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.33
No
42%
3.05
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-8.4pp
27%
Draw
22%
+4.9pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+3.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
28%
+17.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
72%
-17.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
71%
-13.3pp
42%
BTTS No
29%
+13.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +38%
2.03/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.43
+31% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / +34%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
395 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 74%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
15.6 Crosses 15.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Stuttgart
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.32 xG 1.57
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
442 Passes 358
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
02.04.2025 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-1 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AFK
15.01.2025 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-1 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
27.01.2024 Stuttgart Stuttgart 5-2 HT 2-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
25.08.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 5-1 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
27.01.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-1 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
07.08.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 1-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
2-3
AWAY Stuttgart
1.10 xG 2.60
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
413 Passes 435
88% Pass Accuracy 89%
24 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Stuttgart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart nicked a narrow win over RB Leipzig 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and on the day Stuttgart made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 49% of the ball to Stuttgart's 51%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 1.10 to 2.60 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Stuttgart's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stuttgart led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for RB Leipzig and 2.17 for Stuttgart.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Stuttgart?

RB Leipzig 2-3 Stuttgart in the Germany - Bundesliga on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Stuttgart?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 40%, draw 27%, Stuttgart 33%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RB Leipzig) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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