Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 17 May 2025

Borussia Dortmund
3-0 HT 1-0
Holstein Kiel
📅17/05/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Borussia Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.18
Draw
19%
7.13
Away
14%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
Over 2.5
67%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.7
No
44%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
10.6
2-3 Goals
32%
2.66
4-5 Goals
31%
2.25
6+ Goals
19%
2.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.14
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
3%
35.0
X/1
19%
4.39
X/2
6%
35.0
X/X
8%
18.5
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.15
2/2
4%
35.0
2/X
8%
35.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.15 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
80%
-13.8pp
19%
Draw
11%
+8.1pp
14%
Away Win
8%
+5.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
55%
+1.5pp
44%
BTTS No
45%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Borussia Dortmund v Holstein Kiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 11%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +9%
2.41/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/2.01
+7% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / +2%
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
490 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 71%
34.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
20.2 Crosses 13.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

Borussia Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
3.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.04 xG 0.94
69% Ball Possession 31%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 2
603 Passes 241
91% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.01.2025 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 4-2 HT 3-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
01.05.2021 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 5-0 HT 5-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AFK
07.02.2012 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 0-4 HT 0-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK

Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Holstein Kiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
3-0
AWAY Holstein Kiel
2.43 xG 0.81
74% Ball Possession 26%
19 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
647 Passes 168
93% Pass Accuracy 68%
48 Box Touches 8
25 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund cruised past Holstein Kiel 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (67%) landed while both teams to score (56%) missed.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 74% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 26%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 2.43 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.67 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.33 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel?

Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - Bundesliga on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 66%, draw 19%, Holstein Kiel 14%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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