Leganes 3-3 Deportivo Alaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.29
Draw
34%
2.88
Away
43%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
63%
1.45
Over
37%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.19
No
58%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.0
2-3
42%
1.8
4-5
17%
6.02
6+
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
5.83
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.4
X/1
12%
6.71
X/2
14%
4.56
X/X
20%
3.37
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
22%
3.24
2/X
9%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
23%
Home Win
27%
-4.4pp
34%
Draw
31%
+2.5pp
43%
Away Win
41%
+2.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
65%
-2.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
35%
+2.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.7pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leganes The Market 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Alaves The Market 45%
-9% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.01/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.56
-20% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / -40%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
249 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 79%
13.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
14.8 Crosses 25.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leganes
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.79 xG 1.14
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
257 Passes 268
70% Pass Accuracy 70%
14 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2024 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-1 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
23.04.2023 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-1 HT 1-0 Leganes Leganes İS2
13.08.2022 Leganes Leganes 1-2 HT 0-1 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS2
29.02.2020 Leganes Leganes 1-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
13.12.2019 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-1 HT 0-1 Leganes Leganes İS1
07.04.2019 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-1 HT 1-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leganes
3-3
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
1.84 xG 1.77
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 2
198 Passes 310
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Leganes vs Deportivo Alaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leganes and Deportivo Alaves shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Alaves at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leganes had 42% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves's 58%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 1.84 to 1.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Alaves led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Leganes and 1.33 for Deportivo Alaves.

What was the final score of Leganes vs Deportivo Alaves?

Leganes 3-3 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Primera Liga on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leganes vs Deportivo Alaves?

Before kick-off our model rated an Deportivo Alaves win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Leganes 23%, draw 34%, Deportivo Alaves 43%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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