Osasuna 1-1 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
5.09
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
51%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.51
Over Pick
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
25%
5.14
2-3
38%
1.96
4-5
24%
2.61
6+
13%
6.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
9.63
1/2
11%
19.05
1/X
6%
18.1
X/1
9%
12.85
X/2
20%
4.11
X/X
9%
7.25
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
20%
1.74
2/X
8%
16.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.05 — our 11% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
26%
Home Win
16%
+9.4pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.3pp
51%
Away Win
64%
-12.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.6pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osasuna The Market 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid The Market 69%
-10% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +7%
0.93/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.02
+11% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +6%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
271 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 444 · 83%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.6
22.0 Crosses 16.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osasuna
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Real Madrid
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.57 xG 2.55
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
283 Passes 531
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
16 Box Touches 38
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-0 HT 2-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
16.03.2024 Osasuna Osasuna 2-4 HT 1-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
07.10.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-0 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
06.05.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İSPK
18.02.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-2 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
02.10.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osasuna
1-1
AWAY Real Madrid
1.88 xG 1.38
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
320 Passes 418
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
31 Box Touches 38
28 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Osasuna vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osasuna and Real Madrid couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Osasuna had 46% of the ball to Real Madrid's 54%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.88 to 1.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Osasuna and 2.83 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Osasuna vs Real Madrid?

Osasuna 1-1 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osasuna vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Osasuna 26%, draw 23%, Real Madrid 51%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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