Villarreal 1-1 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
1.97
Over Pick
57%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
21%
3.49
2-3
39%
1.78
4-5
28%
3.23
6+
12%
11.5
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.23 — our 28% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.19
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1
18%
4.27
X/2
13%
9.5
X/X
9%
5.22
2/1
10%
22.55
2/2
7%
7.46
2/X
5%
15.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.5pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.4pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
47%
-3.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
53%
+3.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.6pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal The Market 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia The Market 24%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.90/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.43
+20% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
19.5 Crosses 15.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Valencia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.46 xG 1.32
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
395 Passes 307
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
31.08.2024 Valencia Valencia 1-1 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
17.03.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 1-0 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
02.01.2024 Valencia Valencia 3-1 HT 2-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
03.05.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
31.12.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 2-1 HT 1-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
19.04.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 2-0 HT 2-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
1-1
AWAY Valencia
1.40 xG 1.07
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
459 Passes 465
87% Pass Accuracy 89%
30 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal and Valencia shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Villarreal at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Villarreal had 50% of the ball to Valencia's 50%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.40 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Villarreal and 1.00 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Valencia?

Villarreal 1-1 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 53%, draw 22%, Valencia 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Villarreal), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Villarreal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS1 More Spain - Primera Liga
15 Feb 2025
16:00 Leganes vs Deportivo Alaves Analysis →
18:15 Osasuna vs Real Madrid Analysis →
20:30 Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo Analysis →