Adelaide United 1-2 Newcastle Jets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.61
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
32%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.17
Over 2.5
60%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.38
No
43%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
7.86
2-3 Goals
37%
2.31
4-5 Goals
27%
2.32
6+ Goals
15%
3.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.96
1/2
8%
33.0
1/X
8%
13.55
X/1
15%
4.75
X/2
10%
10.6
X/X
10%
7.79
2/1
8%
16.7
2/2
13%
6.65
2/X
7%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
58%
-13.9pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.2pp
32%
Away Win
22%
+10.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
28%
+12.1pp
60%
Over 2.5
72%
-12.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
68%
-11.4pp
43%
BTTS No
32%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 25%
-22% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
1.88/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.74
-27% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +0%
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
448 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 79%
35.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
25.0 Crosses 16.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Newcastle Jets
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.04 xG 1.55
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
379 Passes 357
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
34 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 0-1 HT 0-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
15.03.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 0-1 HT 0-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
22.12.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 3-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
11.03.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-4 HT 2-3 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
27.12.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 0-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
13.03.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United
1-2
AWAY Newcastle Jets
2.63 xG 0.88
64% Ball Possession 36%
25 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
14 Corners 7
585 Passes 299
92% Pass Accuracy 85%
48 Box Touches 16
41 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Adelaide United vs Newcastle Jets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle Jets edged past Adelaide United 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Adelaide United at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Adelaide United had 64% of the ball to Newcastle Jets's 36%, shots finished 25-11, expected goals 2.63 to 0.88 — on chances, Adelaide United could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Adelaide United had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Adelaide United and 0.83 for Newcastle Jets.

What was the final score of Adelaide United vs Newcastle Jets?

Adelaide United 1-2 Newcastle Jets in the Australia - A-League on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United vs Newcastle Jets?

Before kick-off our model rated a Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United 44%, draw 24%, Newcastle Jets 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Adelaide United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Adelaide United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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