Melbourne City 1-0 Perth Glory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.34
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.61
Over 2.5
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.63
2-3 Goals
35%
2.02
4-5 Goals
28%
2.52
6+ Goals
15%
5.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.55
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.9
X/1
21%
4.04
X/2
6%
16.55
X/X
8%
8.08
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.45
2/2
9%
12.85
2/X
5%
20.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.45 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
70%
-10.9pp
21%
Draw
18%
+3.3pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+6.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-6.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.4pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 16%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +15%
2.04/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/2.22
+34% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -22%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
450 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
34.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
19.2 Crosses 12.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne City
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Perth Glory
4.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.21 xG 1.48
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
482 Passes 298
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-5 HT 0-2 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
03.08.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 5-4 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUK
14.04.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 8-0 HT 5-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
02.02.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 4-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
08.12.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
11.02.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-4 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne City
1-0
AWAY Perth Glory
1.60 xG 0.51
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
428 Passes 224
82% Pass Accuracy 65%
34 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Melbourne City vs Perth Glory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City nicked a narrow win over Perth Glory 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melbourne City had 60% of the ball to Perth Glory's 40%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.60 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 4.17 goals for Melbourne City and 2.00 for Perth Glory.

What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Perth Glory?

Melbourne City 1-0 Perth Glory in the Australia - A-League on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Perth Glory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 59%, draw 21%, Perth Glory 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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