Sporting CP 2-2 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 15 Feb 2025

Sporting CP
2-2 HT 1-2
Arouca
📅15/02/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Sporting CP vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
60%
1.3
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
18%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.33
Over
55%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
23%
4.55
2-3
39%
1.89
4-5
25%
2.75
6+
13%
7.47
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.55 — our 23% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.47
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
21.6
X/1
17%
3.75
X/2
5%
19.5
X/X
8%
7.99
2/1
10%
21.7
2/2
8%
16.95
2/X
7%
25.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Sporting CP win — 60% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
72%
-12.7pp
22%
Draw
17%
+5.1pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
39%
+5.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
61%
-5.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.7pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting CP v Arouca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 14%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
2.28/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/2.47
+11% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -9%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
436 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 76%
34.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
23.4 Crosses 11.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8

Sporting CP vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Arouca
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.48 xG 0.67
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
458 Passes 316
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
38 Box Touches 11
29 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
13.09.2024 Arouca Arouca 0-3 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
10.03.2024 Arouca Arouca 0-3 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
08.10.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-1 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
16.04.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-1 HT 0-1 Arouca Arouca POR
24.01.2023 Arouca Arouca 1-2 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP PORLC
29.10.2022 Arouca Arouca 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR

Sporting CP 2-2 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
2-2
AWAY Arouca
2.13 xG 2.22
59% Ball Possession 41%
21 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 9
411 Passes 253
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
35 Box Touches 24
37 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP and Arouca couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sporting CP at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Sporting CP had 59% of the ball to Arouca's 41%, shots finished 21-15, expected goals 2.13 to 2.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sporting CP and 0.67 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Arouca?

Sporting CP 2-2 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 60%, draw 22%, Arouca 18%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting CP) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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