Grazer AK 1-1 Salzburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 15 Feb 2026

Grazer AK
1-1 HT 1-1
Salzburg
📅15/02/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Austria - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Grazer AK vs Salzburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
4.04
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
57%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.37
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.36
6+ Goals
11%
12.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.36 — our 24% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
7.35
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
22.9
1/X
5%
15.75
X/1
7%
9.26
X/2
19%
4.26
X/X
11%
5.18
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
31%
2.24
2/X
7%
14.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.9 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
22%
-2.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.3pp
57%
Away Win
54%
+2.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Grazer AK v Salzburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grazer AK EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Salzburg EU Bookmakers 58%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -27%
1.16/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.31
+21% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -17%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
214 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 78%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
16.7 Crosses 18.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Grazer AK vs Salzburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grazer AK
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Salzburg
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.00 xG 2.46
29% Ball Possession 71%
7 Total Shots 23
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
163 Passes 563
64% Pass Accuracy 88%
11 Box Touches 34
9 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.08.2025 Salzburg Salzburg 5-0 HT 1-0 Grazer AK Grazer AK AVU
02.11.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Grazer AK Grazer AK AVU
02.08.2024 Grazer AK Grazer AK 2-3 HT 2-3 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
03.04.2019 Grazer AK Grazer AK 0-6 HT 0-4 Salzburg Salzburg AUK
24.02.2007 Salzburg Salzburg 2-1 HT 0-1 Grazer AK Grazer AK AVU
22.11.2006 Grazer AK Grazer AK 0-2 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AUK

Grazer AK 1-1 Salzburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grazer AK
1-1
AWAY Salzburg
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 10
POST-MATCH Grazer AK vs Salzburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grazer AK and Salzburg couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

This one beat our numbers. Salzburg carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Grazer AK had 36% of the ball to Salzburg's 64%, shots finished 8-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salzburg led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Grazer AK and 3.00 for Salzburg.

What was the final score of Grazer AK vs Salzburg?

Grazer AK 1-1 Salzburg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 15/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grazer AK vs Salzburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Grazer AK 19%, draw 24%, Salzburg 57%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Salzburg), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Salzburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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