Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Arka Gdynia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 15 Feb 2026

Pogon Szczecin
1-0 HT 1-0
Arka Gdynia
📅15/02/2026 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.66
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
19%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.02
6+ Goals
12%
9.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
2.14
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.1
X/1
18%
4.31
X/2
8%
9.82
X/X
10%
5.56
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.65
2/2
7%
7.53
2/X
6%
15.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.65 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
56%
+3.8pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.7pp
19%
Away Win
20%
-1.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.4pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pogon Szczecin v Arka Gdynia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 23%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -22%
2.16/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.52
+38% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -23%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
21.4 Crosses 14.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.5

Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Arka Gdynia
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.01 xG 0.48
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
389 Passes 259
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
09.08.2025 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 2-1 HT 1-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
30.11.2019 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 1-1 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
29.07.2019 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-0 HT 0-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL
30.06.2019 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 1-4 HT 0-3 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin HAZ
07.04.2019 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-3 HT 1-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL
02.11.2018 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 2-3 HT 2-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL

Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Arka Gdynia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
1-0
AWAY Arka Gdynia
1.78 xG 0.36
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 7
343 Passes 259
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
36 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin nicked a narrow win over Arka Gdynia 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 56% of the ball to Arka Gdynia's 44%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 1.78 to 0.36 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Pogon Szczecin's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.50 for Arka Gdynia.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia?

Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Arka Gdynia in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 15/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 60%, draw 21%, Arka Gdynia 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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