Motor Lublin 2-3 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 15 Feb 2026

📅15/02/2026 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.53
No
37%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.13
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
2.84
6+ Goals
15%
8.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.15
1/2
8%
27.0
1/X
11%
12.65
X/1
16%
5.45
X/2
10%
6.5
X/X
9%
5.41
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.35
2/2
13%
4.13
2/X
6%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.35 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.7pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-1.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.1pp
63%
BTTS Yes
61%
+1.8pp
37%
BTTS No
39%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -7%
1.44/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.69
-1% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
311 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 80%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
23.3 Crosses 20.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motor Lublin
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.15 xG 1.68
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
321 Passes 309
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.08.2025 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 3-3 HT 2-2 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
01.02.2025 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-1 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
26.07.2024 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-2 HT 0-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
16.12.2023 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL1
28.07.2023 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-1 HT 0-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
2-3
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
0.52 xG 3.13
59% Ball Possession 41%
7 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 2
313 Passes 195
76% Pass Accuracy 65%
27 Box Touches 35
24 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lechia Gdansk squeezed past Motor Lublin 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Motor Lublin at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (63%) came in.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 59% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 41%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.52 to 3.13 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lechia Gdansk's control.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Motor Lublin had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Motor Lublin and 0.80 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Lechia Gdansk?

Motor Lublin 2-3 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 15/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motor Lublin win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 43%, draw 26%, Lechia Gdansk 31%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Motor Lublin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Motor Lublin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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