Valladolid 0-1 Celta Vigo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.04
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
50%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.12
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.51
6+ Goals
10%
14.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 27% vs market 25.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.31
1/2
6%
23.85
1/X
7%
15.7
X/1
10%
9.02
X/2
15%
4.22
X/X
8%
4.91
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
29%
2.27
2/X
9%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
22%
+4.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
50%
Away Win
54%
-3.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.5pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valladolid EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 57%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.13/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.25
+3% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +150%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
272 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 387 · 80%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
18.2 Crosses 9.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 5.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valladolid
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Celta Vigo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.86 xG 1.61
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
251 Passes 371
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2024 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 3-1 HT 2-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
26.02.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 3-0 HT 2-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
19.10.2022 Valladolid Valladolid 4-1 HT 1-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
28.02.2021 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-1 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
27.09.2020 Valladolid Valladolid 1-1 HT 0-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
17.06.2020 Valladolid Valladolid 0-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valladolid
0-1
AWAY Celta Vigo
0.66 xG 1.58
39% Ball Possession 61%
5 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 4
282 Passes 498
78% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Valladolid vs Celta Vigo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo edged past Valladolid 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Celta Vigo as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Valladolid had 39% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 61%, shots finished 5-10, expected goals 0.66 to 1.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celta Vigo led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Valladolid and 1.50 for Celta Vigo.

What was the final score of Valladolid vs Celta Vigo?

Valladolid 0-1 Celta Vigo in the Spain - Primera Liga on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valladolid vs Celta Vigo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celta Vigo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Valladolid 26%, draw 24%, Celta Vigo 50%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celta Vigo) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celta Vigo) ✗ Over 2.5
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