Celta Vigo 3-1 Valladolid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 15 Sep 2024

Celta Vigo
3-1 HT 2-0
Valladolid
📅15/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Celta Vigo vs Valladolid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
20%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.58
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.35
6+ Goals
11%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 26% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.08
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
14.9
X/1
23%
3.92
X/2
5%
10.3
X/X
10%
5.23
2/1
11%
23.15
2/2
10%
7.99
2/X
9%
15.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
57%
+0.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.3pp
20%
Away Win
19%
+0.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.6pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Celta Vigo v Valladolid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Valladolid EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -23%
1.63/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.70
+5% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
19.8 Crosses 17.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0

Celta Vigo vs Valladolid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Valladolid
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.49 xG 0.84
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
375 Passes 241
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.02.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 3-0 HT 2-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
19.10.2022 Valladolid Valladolid 4-1 HT 1-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
28.02.2021 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-1 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
27.09.2020 Valladolid Valladolid 1-1 HT 0-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
17.06.2020 Valladolid Valladolid 0-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
29.11.2019 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-0 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1

Celta Vigo 3-1 Valladolid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
3-1
AWAY Valladolid
1.84 xG 0.51
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
419 Passes 344
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
34 Box Touches 12
8 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Valladolid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo saw off Valladolid 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Celta Vigo as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 54% of the ball to Valladolid's 46%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.84 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.00 for Valladolid.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Valladolid?

Celta Vigo 3-1 Valladolid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Valladolid?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celta Vigo win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 57%, draw 23%, Valladolid 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celta Vigo) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celta Vigo) ✗ BTTS No
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