Atletico Madrid 3-0 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 15 Sep 2024

Atletico Madrid
3-0 HT 1-0
Valencia
📅15/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Atletico Madrid vs Valencia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
18%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.31
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.57
6+ Goals
11%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 29% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.68
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.85
X/1
21%
3.34
X/2
8%
15.9
X/X
10%
5.91
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
5%
13.95
2/X
7%
21.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
67%
-7.7pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.1pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+5.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.0pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Madrid v Valencia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 15%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.76/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.68
+9% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
412 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
17.3 Crosses 15.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Atletico Madrid vs Valencia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Valencia
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.94 xG 0.85
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
403 Passes 337
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.01.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
16.09.2023 Valencia Valencia 3-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
18.03.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-0 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
29.08.2022 Valencia Valencia 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
22.01.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-2 HT 0-2 Valencia Valencia İS1
07.11.2021 Valencia Valencia 3-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1

Atletico Madrid 3-0 Valencia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
3-0
AWAY Valencia
3.17 xG 0.15
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
438 Passes 385
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 9
28 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid cruised past Valencia 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 53% of the ball to Valencia's 47%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 3.17 to 0.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.33 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Valencia?

Atletico Madrid 3-0 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 59%, draw 23%, Valencia 18%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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