Atletico Madrid 2-0 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 28 Jan 2024

Atletico Madrid
2-0 HT 1-0
Valencia
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✓
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Atletico Madrid vs Valencia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.72
6+ Goals
11%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 29% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.02
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
16.3
X/1
18%
3.66
X/2
6%
10.7
X/X
10%
5.08
2/1
10%
24.3
2/2
9%
8.87
2/X
9%
17.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
59%
-5.2pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.5pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+2.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.0pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Madrid v Valencia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +2%
1.70/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.41
+9% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
345 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
18.2 Crosses 15.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Atletico Madrid vs Valencia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Valencia
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.85 xG 0.82
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
373 Passes 330
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Valencia Valencia 3-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
18.03.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-0 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
29.08.2022 Valencia Valencia 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
22.01.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-2 HT 0-2 Valencia Valencia İS1
07.11.2021 Valencia Valencia 3-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
24.01.2021 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 HT 1-1 Valencia Valencia İS1

Atletico Madrid 2-0 Valencia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
2-0
AWAY Valencia
2.38 xG 0.53
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
543 Passes 428
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
33 Box Touches 12
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid beat Valencia 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 54% of the ball to Valencia's 46%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 2.38 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.50 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Valencia?

Atletico Madrid 2-0 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 54%, draw 26%, Valencia 20%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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