Celta Vigo 0-1 Girona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 28 Jan 2024

Celta Vigo
0-1 HT 0-1
Girona
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Celta Vigo vs Girona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
4.07
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.1
6+ Goals
12%
10.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.07 — our 26% vs market 19.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.94
1/2
8%
25.0
1/X
6%
12.4
X/1
13%
6.15
X/2
18%
5.38
X/X
15%
4.94
2/1
9%
28.0
2/2
13%
3.27
2/X
6%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
-0.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+0.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.0pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Celta Vigo v Girona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Girona EU Bookmakers 43%
-15% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.12/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.25/1.31
-35% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / -27%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
291 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 80%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
20.9 Crosses 21.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7

Celta Vigo vs Girona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Girona
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.95 xG 1.02
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
379 Passes 371
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.10.2023 Girona Girona 1-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
23.05.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-1 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS1
26.08.2022 Girona Girona 0-1 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
20.04.2019 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2-1 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS1
17.09.2018 Girona Girona 3-2 HT 2-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
27.02.2018 Girona Girona 1-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1

Celta Vigo 0-1 Girona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
0-1
AWAY Girona
0.62 xG 0.96
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
279 Passes 479
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Girona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Girona nicked a narrow win over Celta Vigo 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Girona found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 40% of the ball to Girona's 60%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.62 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Girona led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.17 for Girona.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Girona?

Celta Vigo 0-1 Girona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Girona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Girona win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 34%, draw 26%, Girona 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Girona), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Girona) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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