Sevilla 1-1 Osasuna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.56
Over 2.5
42%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
5.01
6+ Goals
9%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.92
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.3
X/1
12%
4.27
X/2
10%
6.91
X/X
16%
3.81
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
11%
5.75
2/X
6%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.2pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.6pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
60%
-1.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
40%
+1.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.5pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sevilla EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Osasuna EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -7%
1.43/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.27
-12% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
331 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
31.2 Crosses 19.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sevilla
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Osasuna
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.49 xG 1.04
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
488 Passes 201
82% Pass Accuracy 68%
26 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-0 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
26.02.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 2-3 HT 0-1 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
26.01.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 2-1 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İSPK
12.08.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 2-1 HT 1-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
05.02.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 0-0 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
30.10.2021 Sevilla Sevilla 2-0 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sevilla
1-1
AWAY Osasuna
0.83 xG 1.39
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
270 Passes 375
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sevilla vs Osasuna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sevilla and Osasuna couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sevilla at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Sevilla had 43% of the ball to Osasuna's 57%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.83 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osasuna led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sevilla and 1.17 for Osasuna.

What was the final score of Sevilla vs Osasuna?

Sevilla 1-1 Osasuna in the Spain - Primera Liga on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sevilla vs Osasuna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sevilla win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sevilla 42%, draw 27%, Osasuna 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sevilla), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sevilla) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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