Girona 1-4 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 15 Sep 2024

Girona
1-4 HT 0-2
Barcelona
📅15/09/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Girona vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.69
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
45%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.61
Over 2.5
56%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.0
2-3 Goals
38%
2.07
4-5 Goals
24%
2.57
6+ Goals
15%
5.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.98
1/2
5%
19.7
1/X
4%
13.7
X/1
10%
9.48
X/2
15%
4.51
X/X
12%
6.38
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.15
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.4
Value flag · 2/X at 13.4 — our 11% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
24%
+4.5pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.9pp
45%
Away Win
53%
-8.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.7pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Girona v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Girona EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 57%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
1.25/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.04
+54% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -16%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
318 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 468 · 85%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
17.8 Crosses 14.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Girona vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Girona
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Barcelona
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.44 xG 2.30
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
320 Passes 497
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.05.2024 Girona Girona 4-2 HT 1-2 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
10.12.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 2-4 HT 1-2 Girona Girona İS1
10.04.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 0-0 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1
28.01.2023 Girona Girona 0-1 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
24.07.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 3-1 HT 2-1 Girona Girona HAZ
27.01.2019 Girona Girona 0-2 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1

Girona 1-4 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Girona
1-4
AWAY Barcelona
1.29 xG 1.88
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 6
343 Passes 414
88% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Girona vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona swept aside Girona 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Girona had 45% of the ball to Barcelona's 55%, shots finished 9-20, expected goals 1.29 to 1.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Girona and 1.67 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Girona vs Barcelona?

Girona 1-4 Barcelona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Girona vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Girona 28%, draw 27%, Barcelona 45%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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