Girona 1-1 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
23%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.01
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.63
6+ Goals
10%
15.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.6
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
15%
4.48
X/2
9%
7.76
X/X
14%
4.62
2/1
9%
24.7
2/2
8%
6.06
2/X
8%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
48%
-0.5pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
23%
Away Win
25%
-2.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.0pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Girona EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.56/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.39
+37% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
343 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 80%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
21.9 Crosses 16.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Girona
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Valencia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.57 xG 1.40
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
487 Passes 269
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.09.2024 Valencia Valencia 2-0 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1
19.05.2024 Valencia Valencia 1-3 HT 0-1 Girona Girona İS1
02.12.2023 Girona Girona 2-1 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
05.02.2023 Girona Girona 1-0 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
14.08.2022 Valencia Valencia 1-0 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS1
10.03.2019 Girona Girona 2-3 HT 1-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Girona
1-1
AWAY Valencia
0.93 xG 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
439 Passes 331
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
36 Box Touches 19
30 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Girona vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Girona and Valencia couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Girona at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Girona had 56% of the ball to Valencia's 44%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 0.93 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Girona and 1.33 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Girona vs Valencia?

Girona 1-1 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Girona vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Girona win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Girona 48%, draw 29%, Valencia 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Girona) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Girona) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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