Almeria 4-1 Real Zaragoza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.18
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 29% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.08
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.9
X/1
14%
4.06
X/2
10%
10.25
X/X
13%
5.13
2/1
8%
23.4
2/2
6%
8.5
2/X
7%
16.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-4.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.0pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Zaragoza EU Bookmakers 22%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +10%
1.80/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.09
+17% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
315 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 71%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
18.4 Crosses 16.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Real Zaragoza
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.71 xG 0.88
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
370 Passes 341
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 1-2 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
04.03.2022 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 2-0 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
11.12.2021 Almeria Almeria 3-0 HT 0-0 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2
11.04.2021 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 2-1 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
09.12.2020 Almeria Almeria 1-0 HT 0-0 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2
20.06.2020 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 0-2 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
4-1
AWAY Real Zaragoza
1.69 xG 0.19
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 3
311 Passes 355
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Almeria vs Real Zaragoza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria cruised past Real Zaragoza 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Almeria as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Almeria had 48% of the ball to Real Zaragoza's 52%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 1.69 to 0.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Almeria and 0.83 for Real Zaragoza.

What was the final score of Almeria vs Real Zaragoza?

Almeria 4-1 Real Zaragoza in the Spain - 2nd Division on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs Real Zaragoza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Almeria 52%, draw 26%, Real Zaragoza 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almeria) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Almeria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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