Zürich 3-2 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 15 Mar 2025

Zürich
3-2 HT 2-1
Luzern
📅15/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2024/2025

Zürich vs Luzern Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
38%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.79
2-3 Goals
44%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.27
6+ Goals
12%
11.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.15
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
29.5
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
10%
5.28
X/2
14%
6.51
X/X
15%
4.93
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
17%
4.36
2/X
5%
12.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.5 — our 7% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-5.8pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
38%
Away Win
31%
+7.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-2.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+2.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.0pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Zürich v Luzern — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zürich EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 34%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -15%
1.16/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.33
-19% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +0%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
311 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
17.6 Crosses 16.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6

Zürich vs Luzern Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zürich
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Luzern
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.99 xG 1.85
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
334 Passes 248
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.01.2025 Luzern Luzern 3-1 HT 2-0 Zürich Zürich İSV
01.09.2024 Zürich Zürich 1-1 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
18.02.2024 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-0 Zürich Zürich İSV
10.12.2023 Zürich Zürich 1-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
01.10.2023 Luzern Luzern 1-4 HT 0-1 Zürich Zürich İSV
15.04.2023 Luzern Luzern 4-1 HT 2-1 Zürich Zürich İSV

Zürich 3-2 Luzern — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zürich
3-2
AWAY Luzern
1.65 xG 1.65
54% Ball Possession 46%
23 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
356 Passes 282
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
49 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Zürich vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zürich edged past Luzern 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 25% / 38%) promised a tight game; Zürich found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Zürich had 54% of the ball to Luzern's 46%, shots finished 23-11, expected goals 1.65 to 1.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Zürich and 1.67 for Luzern.

What was the final score of Zürich vs Luzern?

Zürich 3-2 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zürich vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated an Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Zürich 36%, draw 25%, Luzern 38%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Luzern) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luzern) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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