Luzern 3-1 Zürich — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.03
Over 2.5
43%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.61
No
55%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.89
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.22
6+ Goals
9%
10.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.89 — our 29% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.88
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
8%
12.45
X/1
16%
5.05
X/2
8%
7.04
X/X
14%
5.01
2/1
9%
23.4
2/2
14%
4.83
2/X
7%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-1.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-1.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
45%
+11.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
55%
-11.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
58%
-12.7pp
55%
BTTS No
42%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Zürich EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.77/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.35
+6% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 75%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
19.3 Crosses 18.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Zürich
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.38 xG 1.24
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
246 Passes 340
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 Zürich Zürich 1-1 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
18.02.2024 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-0 Zürich Zürich İSV
10.12.2023 Zürich Zürich 1-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
01.10.2023 Luzern Luzern 1-4 HT 0-1 Zürich Zürich İSV
15.04.2023 Luzern Luzern 4-1 HT 2-1 Zürich Zürich İSV
18.03.2023 Zürich Zürich 2-1 HT 1-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
3-1
AWAY Zürich
4.29 xG 0.85
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
294 Passes 327
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 10
10 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Zürich
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luzern beat Zürich 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Luzern as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Luzern had 47% of the ball to Zürich's 53%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 4.29 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zürich led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Luzern and 1.67 for Zürich.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Zürich?

Luzern 3-1 Zürich in the Switzerland - Super League on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Zürich?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Luzern 44%, draw 29%, Zürich 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Luzern) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Luzern) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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