Toronto FC 1-2 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 15 Mar 2025

Toronto FC
1-2 HT 1-2
Chicago Fire
📅15/03/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
USA - Major League – 2025

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
37%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.61
No
43%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.64
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.03
6+ Goals
11%
9.98
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.03 — our 28% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.94
1/2
8%
30.5
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
11%
5.04
X/2
11%
6.78
X/X
16%
5.13
2/1
9%
23.4
2/2
18%
4.64
2/X
6%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
45%
-9.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+7.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.4pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toronto FC v Chicago Fire — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 33%
-10% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -2%
1.39/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.66
-12% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
349 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 80%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
14.2 Crosses 18.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Chicago Fire
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.02 xG 1.35
50% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
391 Passes 369
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.09.2024 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-1 HT 0-1 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
16.06.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-4 HT 1-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
16.07.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
01.06.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
14.07.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-0 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
29.05.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 3-2 HT 1-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD

Toronto FC 1-2 Chicago Fire — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
1-2
AWAY Chicago Fire
0.60 xG 1.08
48% Ball Possession 52%
5 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
395 Passes 455
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 6
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chicago Fire squeezed past Toronto FC 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Chicago Fire found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Toronto FC had 48% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 52%, shots finished 5-11, expected goals 0.60 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chicago Fire led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Toronto FC and 1.67 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?

Toronto FC 1-2 Chicago Fire in the USA - Major League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 35%, draw 28%, Chicago Fire 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chicago Fire), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chicago Fire) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
15 Mar 2025
21:30 New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City Analysis →
22:45 Los Angeles FC vs Austin Analysis →