Chicago Fire 1-1 Toronto FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 29 Sep 2024

Chicago Fire
1-1 HT 0-1
Toronto FC
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
USA - Major League – 2024

Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.46
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.45
6+ Goals
9%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 29% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.76
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
14%
4.55
X/2
9%
7.13
X/X
11%
4.8
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
16%
5.16
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.7pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chicago Fire v Toronto FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 31%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.36/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.91
-12% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 76%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
18.5 Crosses 11.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chicago Fire
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Toronto FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.31 xG 1.25
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
342 Passes 411
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.06.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-4 HT 1-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
16.07.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
01.06.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
14.07.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-0 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
29.05.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 3-2 HT 1-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
03.10.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 3-1 HT 1-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD

Chicago Fire 1-1 Toronto FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chicago Fire
1-1
AWAY Toronto FC
0.89 xG 1.22
61% Ball Possession 39%
8 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
479 Passes 269
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chicago Fire and Toronto FC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Chicago Fire at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Chicago Fire had 61% of the ball to Toronto FC's 39%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 0.89 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chicago Fire had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.17 for Toronto FC.

What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC?

Chicago Fire 1-1 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 45%, draw 25%, Toronto FC 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Chicago Fire), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chicago Fire) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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