New York Red Bulls 1-5 New York City FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.11
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.06
6+ Goals
10%
9.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.11 — our 25% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.74
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
17%
4.76
X/2
12%
7.2
X/X
14%
5.17
2/1
9%
23.15
2/2
11%
4.87
2/X
6%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.2pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY New York City FC EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.26/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.26
-20% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
352 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
18.6 Crosses 14.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York Red Bulls
2W-1D-3L
AWAY New York City FC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.82 xG 0.89
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
212 Passes 406
68% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 2-1 HT 1-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
16.09.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 0-0 HT 0-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
04.08.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 1-0 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC CONLK
14.05.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 1-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
17.09.2022 New York City FC New York City FC 2-0 HT 2-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
18.07.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-1 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York Red Bulls
1-5
AWAY New York City FC
1.55 xG 2.19
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 1
324 Passes 305
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 17
27 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York City FC swept aside New York Red Bulls 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-4. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was New York Red Bulls at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, New York Red Bulls had 52% of the ball to New York City FC's 48%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.55 to 2.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York City FC led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for New York Red Bulls and 0.83 for New York City FC.

What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC?

New York Red Bulls 1-5 New York City FC in the USA - Major League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split New York Red Bulls 45%, draw 26%, New York City FC 29%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New York Red Bulls) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New York Red Bulls) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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