Philadelphia Union 1-1 Atlanta United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 29 Sep 2024

Philadelphia Union
1-1 HT 0-0
Atlanta United
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.59
Over 2.5
56%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.9
2-3 Goals
35%
2.06
4-5 Goals
29%
2.59
6+ Goals
12%
5.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.19
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.55
X/1
15%
4.5
X/2
11%
9.18
X/X
11%
6.41
2/1
7%
19.7
2/2
11%
5.81
2/X
6%
13.8
Value flag · 1/X at 13.55 — our 10% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.0pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.4pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.5pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 27%
+4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
2.09/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.52
+18% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
338 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 80%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
18.9 Crosses 17.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Philadelphia Union
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Atlanta United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.62 xG 1.19
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
264 Passes 372
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.04.2024 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-2 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
05.10.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-2 HT 3-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
02.07.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-0 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
17.09.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 0-0 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
01.09.2022 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 4-1 HT 2-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
25.09.2021 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-0 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD

Philadelphia Union 1-1 Atlanta United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
1-1
AWAY Atlanta United
0.87 xG 1.45
51% Ball Possession 49%
22 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 9
370 Passes 361
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 26
32 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Philadelphia Union at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Philadelphia Union had 51% of the ball to Atlanta United's 49%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 0.87 to 1.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.17 for Atlanta United.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United?

Philadelphia Union 1-1 Atlanta United in the USA - Major League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 45%, draw 27%, Atlanta United 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Philadelphia Union), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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