Atlanta United 2-2 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 14 Apr 2024

Atlanta United
2-2 HT 0-0
Philadelphia Union
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
30%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.49
No
45%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.72
2-3 Goals
38%
1.92
4-5 Goals
29%
2.84
6+ Goals
12%
7.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.11
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
17%
5.34
X/2
11%
6.29
X/X
18%
5.54
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.6
2/2
12%
3.9
2/X
6%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.4pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.2pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-3.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
63%
-8.0pp
45%
BTTS No
37%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlanta United v Philadelphia Union — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.32/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.31
+2% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
371 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 77%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
19.0 Crosses 18.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.18 xG 1.64
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
362 Passes 268
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
05.10.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-2 HT 3-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
02.07.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-0 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
17.09.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 0-0 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
01.09.2022 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 4-1 HT 2-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
25.09.2021 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-0 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
20.06.2021 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-2 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD

Atlanta United 2-2 Philadelphia Union — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
2-2
AWAY Philadelphia Union
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
405 Passes 206
85% Pass Accuracy 72%
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlanta United and Philadelphia Union couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Atlanta United had 62% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 38%, shots finished 19-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atlanta United and 1.67 for Philadelphia Union.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union?

Atlanta United 2-2 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 40%, draw 30%, Philadelphia Union 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atlanta United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atlanta United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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