DC United 2-3 Orlando City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.18
6+ Goals
10%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.8
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
12%
4.68
X/2
13%
6.96
X/X
7%
5.05
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.6
2/2
12%
4.85
2/X
7%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+2.8pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.3pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME DC United EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Orlando City EU Bookmakers 34%
-6% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +24%
1.65/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.25
+4% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +15%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
18.7 Crosses 15.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME DC United
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Orlando City
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.04 xG 1.24
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
310 Passes 380
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.04.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 1-3 HT 1-1 DC United DC United ABD
12.03.2023 DC United DC United 1-1 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
01.08.2022 DC United DC United 2-1 HT 0-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
05.07.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 3-5 HT 0-2 DC United DC United ABD
03.10.2021 Orlando City Orlando City 2-1 HT 1-1 DC United DC United ABD
17.05.2021 DC United DC United 0-1 HT 0-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME DC United
2-3
AWAY Orlando City
1.54 xG 1.84
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
319 Passes 298
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 17
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH DC United vs Orlando City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando City nicked a narrow win over DC United 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was DC United at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, DC United had 52% of the ball to Orlando City's 48%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.54 to 1.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, DC United had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for DC United and 1.50 for Orlando City.

What was the final score of DC United vs Orlando City?

DC United 2-3 Orlando City in the USA - Major League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for DC United vs Orlando City?

Before kick-off our model rated a DC United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split DC United 46%, draw 23%, Orlando City 30%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (DC United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (DC United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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