Minnesota United 1-2 Houston Dynamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 14 Apr 2024

Minnesota United
1-2 HT 0-1
Houston Dynamo
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
38%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.97
Over 2.5
43%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.63
No
55%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.28
6+ Goals
9%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.69 — our 32% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.04
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
9%
4.89
X/2 EV+ ✗
17%
6.49
X/X
9%
4.79
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
15%
4.52
2/X
10%
13.25
Value flag · X/2 at 6.49 — our 17% vs market 11.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
41%
-5.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
38%
Away Win
33%
+4.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
47%
+9.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
53%
-9.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
57%
-11.8pp
55%
BTTS No
43%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Minnesota United v Houston Dynamo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -16%
1.66/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.28
-17% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
368 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 79%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
21.5 Crosses 15.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.7

Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Minnesota United
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Houston Dynamo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.24 xG 1.51
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
275 Passes 442
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.07.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 0-3 HT 0-2 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
24.05.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 4-0 HT 1-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABDK
18.05.2023 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-0 HT 1-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
27.08.2022 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-1 HT 0-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
24.07.2022 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 1-2 HT 0-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
26.09.2021 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-0 HT 2-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD

Minnesota United 1-2 Houston Dynamo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Minnesota United
1-2
AWAY Houston Dynamo
2.39 xG 0.43
57% Ball Possession 43%
24 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
360 Passes 244
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 9
26 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Houston Dynamo nicked a narrow win over Minnesota United 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; Houston Dynamo found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Minnesota United had 57% of the ball to Houston Dynamo's 43%, shots finished 24-6, expected goals 2.39 to 0.43 — on chances, Minnesota United could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Minnesota United had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Minnesota United and 1.00 for Houston Dynamo.

What was the final score of Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo?

Minnesota United 1-2 Houston Dynamo in the USA - Major League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Houston Dynamo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Minnesota United 35%, draw 27%, Houston Dynamo 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Houston Dynamo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Houston Dynamo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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