CF Montreal 2-1 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
34%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.34
6+ Goals
9%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.6 — our 29% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.9
1/2
7%
26.5
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
16%
5.87
X/2
16%
5.38
X/X
18%
4.77
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
11%
3.44
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.3pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
34%
Away Win
38%
-3.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.3pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 42%
+8% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.22/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/1.14
+3% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +19%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
371 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 81%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
17.9 Crosses 16.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CF Montreal
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.47 xG 1.49
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
393 Passes 310
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.09.2023 CF Montreal CF Montreal 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
18.05.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-0 HT 2-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
29.05.2022 CF Montreal CF Montreal 4-3 HT 2-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
02.04.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-4 HT 2-3 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
19.08.2021 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-0 HT 0-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
18.07.2021 CF Montreal CF Montreal 5-4 HT 2-3 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CF Montreal
2-1
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.14 xG 1.02
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
432 Passes 413
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Montreal nicked a narrow win over FC Cincinnati 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 30% / 34% — and on the day CF Montreal made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, CF Montreal had 50% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 50%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.14 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CF Montreal had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for CF Montreal and 2.33 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?

CF Montreal 2-1 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a CF Montreal win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split CF Montreal 36%, draw 30%, FC Cincinnati 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CF Montreal), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CF Montreal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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