Toronto FC 1-4 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 16 Jun 2024

Toronto FC
1-4 HT 1-1
Chicago Fire
📅16/06/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.95
Over 2.5
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.34 — our 27% vs market 24.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.64
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.3
X/1
19%
4.49
X/2
10%
7.49
X/X
11%
4.9
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
15%
5.4
2/X
6%
13.7
Value flag · 1/X at 13.3 — our 11% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.5pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toronto FC v Chicago Fire — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 30%
-6% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / +3%
1.64/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.89
+7% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
369 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
15.2 Crosses 15.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Chicago Fire
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.20 xG 1.71
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
370 Passes 353
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.07.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
01.06.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
14.07.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-0 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
29.05.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 3-2 HT 1-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
03.10.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 3-1 HT 1-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
25.07.2021 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-2 HT 0-1 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD

Toronto FC 1-4 Chicago Fire — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
1-4
AWAY Chicago Fire
0.90 xG 1.17
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
531 Passes 299
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 9
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chicago Fire cruised past Toronto FC 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Toronto FC at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Toronto FC had 62% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 38%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 0.90 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toronto FC had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Toronto FC and 1.17 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?

Toronto FC 1-4 Chicago Fire in the USA - Major League on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toronto FC win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 42%, draw 28%, Chicago Fire 30%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toronto FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toronto FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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