Perth Glory 1-3 Brisbane Roar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒13:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
41%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.96
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
9.28
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.96 — our 26% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.82
1/2
6%
25.0
1/X
7%
12.25
X/1
11%
6.14
X/2
18%
5.79
X/X
10%
5.03
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
17%
3.48
2/X
7%
12.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-0.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.4pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+2.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.8pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 42%
-10% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -30%
1.47/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.72
+12% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -35%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 81%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
20.6 Crosses 19.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perth Glory
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Brisbane Roar
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.12 xG 1.10
44% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
307 Passes 435
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.12.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-1 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
23.07.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-4 HT 1-1 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUK
17.02.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 3-2 HT 1-2 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
26.11.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-1 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
26.02.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-1 HT 2-1 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
10.01.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perth Glory
1-3
AWAY Brisbane Roar
1.31 xG 1.16
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
335 Passes 344
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brisbane Roar beat Perth Glory 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Brisbane Roar as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Perth Glory had 50% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 50%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.31 to 1.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Perth Glory had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Perth Glory and 1.50 for Brisbane Roar.

What was the final score of Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar?

Perth Glory 1-3 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - A-League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Perth Glory 35%, draw 24%, Brisbane Roar 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brisbane Roar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brisbane Roar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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AVUS More Australia - A-League
15 Mar 2025
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