Libertad 4-1 Orense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.27
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
40%
+4.3pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.2pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.4pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Orense EU Bookmakers 33%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
0.91/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.04
-15% / +138% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +28%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
19.6 Crosses 14.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Orense
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
0.75 xG 1.10
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
227 Passes 297
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
12 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.10.2024 Orense Orense 1-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
27.04.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
01.10.2023 Orense Orense 3-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
30.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
4-1
AWAY Orense
2.50 xG 0.79
50% Ball Possession 50%
24 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 6
254 Passes 267
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
33 Box Touches 19
36 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Orense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad swept aside Orense 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Libertad as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Libertad had 50% of the ball to Orense's 50%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 2.50 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Orense led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Libertad and 1.25 for Orense.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Orense?

Libertad 4-1 Orense in the Ecuador - Premier on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Orense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Libertad 44%, draw 27%, Orense 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Libertad) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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