HJK Helsinki 3-1 KuPS Kuopio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - League Cup, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.85
2-3 Goals
44%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
3.67
6+ Goals
10%
16.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 28% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.12
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.1
X/1
15%
4.93
X/2
7%
6.55
X/X
13%
4.39
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
15%
4.84
2/X
5%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.5pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 33%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
4.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.62
+150% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
370 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
1W-1D-4L
AWAY KuPS Kuopio
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.98 xG 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
389 Passes 346
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 1-0 HT 1-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
19.06.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 3-1 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
06.04.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 3-1 HT 1-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
21.10.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-2 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
03.09.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-2 HT 1-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
05.05.2023 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 2-1 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
3-1
AWAY KuPS Kuopio
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs KuPS Kuopio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki saw off KuPS Kuopio 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 62% of the ball to KuPS Kuopio's 38%, shots finished 16-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, KuPS Kuopio led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for HJK Helsinki and 1.83 for KuPS Kuopio.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs KuPS Kuopio?

HJK Helsinki 3-1 KuPS Kuopio in the Finland - League Cup on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs KuPS Kuopio?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 43%, draw 28%, KuPS Kuopio 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →