KuPS Kuopio 1-0 HJK Helsinki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.21
Over 2.5
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.47
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
20%
2.92
6+ Goals
15%
8.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.0
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.45
X/1
21%
3.94
X/2
8%
10.45
X/X
10%
6.15
2/1
5%
20.7
2/2
9%
7.57
2/X
6%
15.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-7.7pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.0pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.3pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 23%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.91/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.36/2.56
-8% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / -34%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
401 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 80%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.0 Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KuPS Kuopio
3W-2D-1L
AWAY HJK Helsinki
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.02 xG 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
363 Passes 370
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.06.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 3-1 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
06.04.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 3-1 HT 1-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
21.10.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-2 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
03.09.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-2 HT 1-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
05.05.2023 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 2-1 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
18.03.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-1 HT 1-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KuPS Kuopio
1-0
AWAY HJK Helsinki
1.92 xG 0.90
37% Ball Possession 63%
13 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
261 Passes 484
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH KuPS Kuopio vs HJK Helsinki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KuPS Kuopio squeezed past HJK Helsinki 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had KuPS Kuopio as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, KuPS Kuopio had 37% of the ball to HJK Helsinki's 63%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.92 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, KuPS Kuopio had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for KuPS Kuopio and 1.50 for HJK Helsinki.

What was the final score of KuPS Kuopio vs HJK Helsinki?

KuPS Kuopio 1-0 HJK Helsinki in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KuPS Kuopio vs HJK Helsinki?

Before kick-off our model rated a KuPS Kuopio win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split KuPS Kuopio 50%, draw 26%, HJK Helsinki 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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