Haka 2-3 VPS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 19 Oct 2024

Haka
2-3 HT 1-1
VPS
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2024

Haka vs VPS Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.19
Draw
34%
3.54
Away
32%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.38
Over 2.5
44%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.46
No
47%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
5.15
2-3 Goals
46%
1.96
4-5 Goals
19%
2.73
6+ Goals
9%
7.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.15 — our 26% vs market 14.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.11
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
10%
5.45
X/2
11%
6.29
X/X EV+ ✗
20%
5.76
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
14%
3.78
2/X
8%
12.8
Value flag · X/X at 5.76 — our 20% vs market 13.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
41%
-7.5pp
34%
Draw
24%
+9.8pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-2.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
38%
+17.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
62%
-17.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.4pp
47%
BTTS No
36%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Haka v VPS — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Haka EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY VPS EU Bookmakers 38%
-6% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +13%
1.50/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.04
+10% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +12%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
285 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 409 · 83%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
23.6 Crosses 15.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Haka vs VPS Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Haka
1W-1D-4L
AWAY VPS
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.10 xG 1.93
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
288 Passes 347
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
18.08.2024 VPS VPS 3-2 HT 0-0 Haka Haka FİN
06.04.2024 Haka Haka 1-2 HT 0-2 VPS VPS FİN
24.02.2024 VPS VPS 0-1 HT 0-0 Haka Haka FLK
23.07.2023 VPS VPS 4-1 HT 2-1 Haka Haka FİN
22.05.2023 Haka Haka 2-2 HT 2-2 VPS VPS FİN
28.01.2023 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 1-0 Haka Haka FLK

Haka 2-3 VPS — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Haka
2-3
AWAY VPS
1.93 xG 3.41
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 5
260 Passes 329
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 26
28 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Haka vs VPS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VPS edged past Haka 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 34% / 32% — and on the day VPS made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Haka had 46% of the ball to VPS's 54%, shots finished 16-17, expected goals 1.93 to 3.41 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold VPS's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, VPS led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Haka and 2.17 for VPS.

What was the final score of Haka vs VPS?

Haka 2-3 VPS in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Haka vs VPS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Haka win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Haka 34%, draw 34%, VPS 32%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/34/32) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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