Oulu 1-2 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
30%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.95
Over 2.5
43%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.66
No
55%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.56
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
3.37
6+ Goals
8%
12.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.56 — our 31% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.27
1/2
4%
25.5
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
17%
6.25
X/2
7%
5.08
X/X
14%
4.75
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
19%
3.19
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
34%
+7.2pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
30%
Away Win
40%
-10.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.7pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oulu EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 45%
-13% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +28%
1.02/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/0.63
-12% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
257 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.3
15.1 Crosses 31.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oulu
4W-1D-1L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.23 xG 1.99
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
403 Passes 269
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.09.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-1 HT 0-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
17.05.2024 Oulu Oulu 1-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.09.2023 Oulu Oulu 3-2 HT 2-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
09.07.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
03.06.2023 Oulu Oulu 3-2 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
28.09.2022 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-4 HT 0-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oulu
1-2
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
427 Passes 338
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
POST-MATCH Oulu vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Mariehamn nicked a narrow win over Oulu 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Oulu at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Oulu had 54% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 46%, shots finished 10-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Oulu had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Oulu and 1.67 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of Oulu vs IFK Mariehamn?

Oulu 1-2 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oulu vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oulu win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Oulu 41%, draw 29%, IFK Mariehamn 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Oulu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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