Inter Turku 3-2 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.5
No
49%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.66
2-3 Goals
42%
1.91
4-5 Goals
21%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.03
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.66 — our 26% vs market 16.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.73
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
15%
4.91
X/2
8%
7.22
X/X
12%
5.45
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
13%
4.66
2/X
5%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
46%
+4.0pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.4pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-2.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
62%
-11.6pp
49%
BTTS No
38%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Inter Turku EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
2.20/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.19
+11% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
301 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 80%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
16.9 Crosses 16.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Inter Turku
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Gnistan
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.58 xG 1.25
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
392 Passes 208
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
30 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.07.2024 Inter Turku Inter Turku 2-2 HT 1-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
06.04.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 2-1 HT 2-1 Inter Turku Inter Turku FİN
07.02.2024 Inter Turku Inter Turku 1-2 HT 1-1 Gnistan Gnistan FLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Inter Turku
3-2
AWAY Gnistan
1.62 xG 0.69
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
436 Passes 308
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Inter Turku vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inter Turku squeezed past Gnistan 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Inter Turku as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Inter Turku had 56% of the ball to Gnistan's 44%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.62 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Gnistan led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Inter Turku and 2.00 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of Inter Turku vs Gnistan?

Inter Turku 3-2 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Inter Turku vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Inter Turku win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Inter Turku 50%, draw 24%, Gnistan 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Inter Turku), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Inter Turku) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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